Unfortunately, it looks like Time's option #2 is the most likely outcome in Iran now. Although it is not clear how violent the crackdown on the protests has been, it appears that the clerical regime is in no mood to negotiate or compromise with the opposition. The distressing video of Neda, who was killed before cell phone video cameras, shows that the authorities have at least some of the time used excessive force. Since the top and middle layers of organizers appear to have been arrested, the protests seem to be losing momentum. Twitter alone cannot organize a revolution.
Sad as it sounds, I fear that the wind is out of the sails. Even if that is so, I believe that many of us will not look at the people of Iran in the same light.
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