Endgame?

Speculation about how the crisis in Iran will turn out is rampant. As one analyst remarks on the Foreign Policy website, "Predictions about Iran are a dime a dozen these days. And that's exactly they are worth."

Time Magazine outlines four possible endgame scenarios:
1. Revolution 2.0 - A repeat of the 1979 Revolution that brought down the Shah.

2. A Tehran Tiananmen? - A bloody crackdown that (roughly) restores the status quo.

3. Khamenei's Divine Retreat - The Ayatollah convinces the Guardian Council to order a new vote or to "adjust" the vote so that a runoff is necessary. A weakened Supreme Leader would result.

4. A Zimbabwe Option - A negotiated power-sharing arrangement or "buying-off" of select oppositionists with less important positions.

Interesting and thoughtful speculation. I would argue that option #3 is the most likely, followed by 2 and 4. However, as Charles Kurzman argues, nothing is predictable and if one makes enough predictions, something will almost certainly end up being correct. Ignore the expert predictions, in other words. He probably has made the most thoughtful predictions yet - anything could happen.