Is the Iranian Regime in Trouble?

Even though there are many parallels between the massive demonstrations occurring in Iran today and the revolution that threw out the Shah thirty years ago, it is unlikely that the current Islamic regime is in danger of imminent collapse or overthrow. As much as many of us - me included - would like to see the current regime replaced by something more democratic, it doesn't seem like that is the main aim of the protesters, or even if it was, that it would be successful. The coercive apparatus of the regime is still quite robust, and as long as it remains strong and the regime's leaders are willing to wield it against protesters, the regime structure seems relatively safe for the time being.

What appears to be behind much of the turmoil is a leadership struggle between different camps. Depending on the source, the camps can be characterized as conservative vs. reformist; conservative vs. conservative; or first vs. second generation. (See a terrific article here on the internal power struggle.) No matter how it is characterized, the various camps are all generally in favor of the Islamic Republican form of government and its broad outlines, so the winner of the struggle is not likely to initiate major changes in government structure.

However, depending on who wins, there may be changes in political substance. If Supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei wins the power struggle, the many who supported Mousavi and hoped for greater freedom of expression will likely be disillusioned. Their belief in the rule of law may be dashed, since the impression is widespread that their votes were never even counted. Much like after the student riots of 1999, widespread apathy may result. This is what many in the leadership hope for - those who are trying to forestall change.

But if the students are able to extract some concessions, the toppling of the regime is unlikely, but some degree of freedoms may result. More freedom of expression, freedom for women to express themselves in dress, for example. And the expectation that the voting process will proceed in a free manner will be upheld. Keep in mind that the Iranian parliament (Majles) and presidency - elected offices - are not the most powerful in the government. The appointed and indirectly elected clerical bodies are the most powerful positions in the country, and they "supervise" the elected bodies. So even if the elected bodies were freely chosen, Iranian government would be closer to a democracy, but still not quite there.

I wish I could be more optimistic about the likelihood of widespread and radical change in Iran. And, I actually hope I am wrong. There is something inspiring about watching the struggle for freedom unfold before our eyes. We are probably projecting more into that struggle than really exists. However, if that struggle is successful, it could perhaps plant the seeds for something larger in the long run. I believe that is why the Mullahs fight.


"Mullahs - you can't kill a hashtag." - Twitter post reported anonymously on CNN 6/18/09