What in the $%^#$ is Going on in Yemen?

Protesters demand the ouster of President Saleh during a rally in Sanaa on June 4 

Is he in or out? No one knows. While Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh is definitely out of the country for medical treatment, it is not clear if he is coming back as president. Protesters celebrated his departure in the street, while President Saleh's allies warned that the president could be back "in days."  Behind the scenes, analysts and observers seem to think that the Saudis would use their clout, with Saleh in their country, to press him to resign permanently. The Saudis have been heavily engaged in previous initiatives designed to induce the oh-so-reluctant president to step down, thus far to no avail. But would the Saudis let this opportunity slip by? Would they let him out of their country without extracting concessions from Saleh designed to stabilize their problematic neighbor to the south? It's unclear at this moment, or, as reports released moments ago suggest, perhaps he may be too injured to return any time soon, making a transition even more necessary and likely.

It has been dismaying to see Yemen plunge into violence after the revolutions of Tunisia and Egypt were successful in removing entrenched leaders without the use of opposition violence. In Yemen, the protesters remain peaceful, like their counterparts in Egypt, Tunisia, and elsewhere, even in the face of government violence. However, long-time tribal rivals, sensing an upcoming transition of power and smarting from years of discontent over division of political spoils, have begun using the peaceful opposition as a springboard for their own ambitions, not all of which are peaceful - as can be seen from the violence wracking Yemen in the last two weeks. Now, however, the departure of Saleh has provided a new opening for transition (perhaps) under which transition to new leadership may begin.

Photo: Reuters